A MONTH REMAINING IN THE 2023 NFL regular season, several teams are starting to look for new head coaches, but one position stands out as being more historic and important than the others.

Of course, I’m referring to the New England Patriots. The last time they had a new head coach was 24 years ago, when they fired Pete Carroll and hired Bill Belichick, who would go on to change NFL history.

As the Patriots’ coach, Belichick has led the team to a record six Super Bowl victories and dominated the salary cap era in ways never seen before. Following a 5-11 campaign in his first year in New England, Belichick went 11-5 in Year 2 and won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady taking over at quarterback in place of an injured Drew Bledsoe. The Patriots averaged 12.2 regular-season wins from 2001 to 2019—Brady’s last season in New England—and went 30-11 in the postseason, including 6-3 in Super Bowls.

However, the 71-year-old Belichick hasn’t been able to make it work since Brady left. The Patriots played just one postseason game (which they lost by thirty points) and finished 25–25 in the first three years following Brady’s retirement. After beating the Steelers on Thursday night, the Pats’ record this season is 3-10, equal for second worst in the NFL with the Panthers, who dismissed head coach Frank Reich two weeks ago.

The inability to develop 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones into a franchise quarterback, ineffective drafts, and dubious personnel choices are a few of the elements that have contributed to the worst Patriots season in almost 20 years. And there’s a growing notion in the NFL that someone other than Belichick will be coaching the team in 2024, whether it’s due to team owner Robert Kraft’s choice to move on, Belichick’s decision to go away, or a joint decision between the two parties.

THIS IS NOT A SIMPLE JOB FOR KENT. Belichick serves as both the general manager and the coach. Since his hire, he has had the last say over the football team’s decisions in the draft, free agency, and trade market. In order to replace him, Kraft would probably need to bring in a coach and a general manager.

It would also take some dexterity to announce Belichick’s resignation to the general public. When the Dolphins moved on from Don Shula, the Yankees moved on from Joe Torre, and the Giants moved on from Tom Coughlin, I was there to cover it all. None of those cases involved the announcement of a “firing.” All those guys had too much done and had cemented themselves into the history of the team too much for the team to just “fire” them.

And while it was evident in all three cases that the coach or manager disagreed with the team’s decision—Coughlin, for example, famously walked right past Giants co-owner John Mara without shaking his hand, and Torre held a private press conference outside of Yankee Stadium—each announcement was accompanied by an attempt on the part of the team to recognize the man’s accomplishments rather than simply firing him.

Based on several interactions with folks in and around the building, this is what I anticipate happening in New England at the end of the season. It’s ugly there, no doubt about it. Individuals from the group with whom I have spoken portray a bleak image. Not only have the Patriots been losing, but their offensive performance has also been largely unimpressive. They score 12.8 points offensively every game on average. They had restricted their opponents to 10 or less points in each of their three games before to Thursday night’s 21–18 victory, and they had lost all three. Additionally, insiders in New England described the environment prior to last Thursday’s crucial victory in Pittsburgh as “glum” and “depressing.”

Following the team’s 6-0 loss to the Chargers in Week 13, and with the next game not until four days away, Belichick convened staff meetings at the team’s offices at 8 p.m.

“Imagine how difficult it is to inspire a defense to play after conceding six points and falling short,” remarked a person with extensive knowledge of the Patriots organization.

It wasn’t always this ugly. The Patriots finished 10-7 in Jones’ debut season and advanced to the postseason. There was cause for optimism that they might move from Brady to the next quarterback for the team. However, once Josh McDaniels departed to accept the disastrous position of Raiders coach, Belichick took the widely criticized choice to not appoint a new offensive coordinator to take his place. Rather, he put veteran special teams coach Joe Judge in charge of coaching the quarterbacks, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in charge of the offense.

It was unsuccessful.

Patricia, Judge, Jones, and the other offensive players were in a very impossible situation because of Belichick’s play calling. Jones’ decline, an 8-9 record, and additional adjustments made this past offseason were the outcomes. Bill O’Brien, a former offensive coordinator for the Patriots and Texans, was rehired to oversee the offense; Patricia departed the team to work as a defensive coach with the Eagles, while Judge is still a member of the team but in a different capacity. Since then, Jones has been reduced to a backup position behind second-year quarterback Bailey Zappe, who finished the season with a 27.2 QBR despite throwing three touchdowns on Thursday.

THIS AWFUL Patriots season has been characterized in part by the frustration about the quarterback play. Team insiders claim that early in the season, the coaching staff believed Jones was making progress in important areas, but that belief did not hold. The Patriots had hoped that Zappe would perform well enough in practice during the mid-season to completely replace Jones as the starting quarterback, but he did not. For a short while, the coaching staff also believed that undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham, who is currently with Baltimore, would be a viable alternative under center, or at least someone they could deploy in certain situations. That also did not occur.

In Week 10, the Colts defeated the Patriots 10–6, and Belichick benched Jones in the fourth quarter. Belichick allowed Jones to work with the first team all week when the team returned from its Week 11 bye, despite his repeated statements that he had “told every player to be ready to play.” In the Week 12 matchup with the Giants, Jones was started by Belichick; however, after halftime, Zappe took his spot on the bench. That game was defeated by the Patriots 10-7. Zappe was not much better, averaging 3.9 yards per attempt and throwing a pick, but the team’s relationship with Jones had reached a breaking point.

At the time, a team source stated, “I think there’s a sense that it just couldn’t get worse.”

In Week 13, Zappe returned to action, and the Chargers, who had been allowing an average of 23.5 points per game, shut out the Pats. In Week 14, after throwing for 240 yards against Pittsburgh, a team insider told me the following day, “The offense plays with more energy for him.” It’s unlikely that the positive vibes from the victory will last into Week 15, though, because Kansas City’s outstanding pass defense will be in action.